Weekly close at all-time high — 5 things to keep an eye on in Bitcoin this week
This week is exciting with Bitcoin challenging all-time highs, and ETFs potentially launching in the United States.
Bitcoin (BTC) simply refuses to die this week as a dip below $60,000 barely lasts an hour and bears are burned yet again.After a fairly calm weekend, Sunday saw a typical drawdown before a dramatic resurgence took place for BTC/USD just an hour later.With that, Bitcoin has preserved not only its bullish trajectory but has also sealed its highest weekly close ever — around $61,500.As the market braces for a possible start of trading for the United States’ first Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), volatility is all but guaranteed, say analysts.Cointelegraph takes a look at five things to consider in the week that BTC/USD squares up to all-time highs and institutional access takes a historic leap forward.Bitcoin gives less than an hour to “buy the dip”Just when it seemed that the run to all-time highs had hit a stumbling block, Bitcoin surprised everyone yet again overnight.After losing $60,000 late Sunday, bulls had no time for BTC price weakness, and before BTC/USD had even hit $59,000, they embarked on an aggressive buying spree.Hours later, the pair was back above not only $60,000, but $62,000 — and has stayed there at the time of writing.The episode did not even impact Bitcoin’s weekly close, which despite volatility still came in as the highest of all time — around $61,500.”The historic Weekly Close now means BTC is well-positioned for further upside,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital summarized on Monday.He added that the next phase of BTC price action will be “more volatile” than what has come before, in line with previous bull market years 2013 and 2017.BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView. While analysts celebrate the weekly close milestones, there is also the possibility that the U.S. market opens on Monday. This could mean that BTC/USD will be more volatile than in previous bull markets, such as 2013 and 2017. Source: Arcane ResearchOptimism that the tide will turn in favor of the crypto industry continues this week as Grayscale confirms that it will apply to convert its flagship Bitcoin fund product to an ETF. Source: Arcane Research. This week, Grayscale confirms it will apply for an ETF to convert its flagship Bitcoin fund product.
Grayscale’s fund, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), is a topic in itself. It trades at a decreasing discount to spot BTC amid concerns that institutional clients might vote with their feet in the lead up to the ETF launch. This chart shows why it’s better to buy #Bitcoin rather than the Bitcoin Future ETF. New Bitcoin ETFs may be more expensive than buying cryptocurrency directly. Bitcoin Future has underperformed by 30ppts since start of Bitcoin Future in 2017. https://t.co/1ZnVBJQlGa pic.twitter.com/oXrZ95Wsmg– Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) October 17, 2021
“CME futures are available to most institutional players. The main reason that they would trade ETFs over futures is to avoid tracking error (against spot prices from futures roll costs, price deviations from contango or backwardation). This was the message that QCP Capital, a crypto trading firm, sent out to Telegram channel subscribers Friday. Source: Blockchain. This increase will bring difficulty back to 20 trillion for the first-time since June 2019. Source: BlockchainThis comes despite some volatility in hash rate, with estimates now back down to 123 exahashes per second (EH/s), having reached in excess of 140 EH/s this month.With the overall uptrend still intact, however, concerns are few and far between amid news that the U.S. now provides a home for the lion’s share of Bitcoin mining power.Supply shock predicts “good year” in 2022While Bitcoin price forecasts focus on what might be possible in Q4 this year, some are already looking further afield — and using data to arrive at even more bullish conclusions.One analyst painting a rosy picture for 2022 is Willy Woo, creator of data resource Woobull and well known for his Bitcoin market cycle research.Over the weekend, Woo highlighted Bitcoin’s increasing scarcity as likely fuel for a sustained price squeeze.Historically, he noted, decreasing supply combined with more of that supply staying in the hands of hodlers with no plans to sell creates a powerful bull signal.His metric, “Long Term Holder Supply Shock,” clearly shows such a scenario playing out multiple times over Bitcoin’s history.”The technical name for this chart is ‘2022 is gonna be a good year,'” he summarized to Twitter followers.Bitcoin Long Term Holder Supply Shock chart. Source: Willy Woo/ Twitter. Bitcoin’s price has been rising steadily since the beginning of each halving cycle. Every halving cycle has seen a price peak in the year following the block subsidy reduction. Then, there is a mid-cycle bottom. Who doesn’t? He warned his followers at the weekend that nothing macro PA-wise has suggested it would happen. “Watch your indicators. 2-week RSI channel RVI 92-93. If they’re not hit, I’m out. Source: TechDev/ TwitterFellow Twitter personality Rekt Capital also took the opportunity to remind followers and subscribers of the importance of profit-taking. Source: TechDev/ TwitterFellow Twitter personality Rekt Capital likewise took the opportunity to remind followers and subscribers of the need to time profit-taking.”People think BTC will never see another -80% Bear Market because it is now mainstream & too mature of an asset,” he argued. Let’s not forget that there was a -53% correction a few months ago. The average Bear Market is -84.5% deep. It is very likely that one will occur after the Bull Market.” PlanB, the inventor of the stock-toflow-based Bitcoin price forecasting models said earlier this month that the bull market has at least six more months to go.
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